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Electoral College Projection Database
Updated today. We now have a total of 37 Electoral College projection sites in our Database.
5 have been updated today, 6 yesterday, and 4 on Sunday. Dustin will be updating ours on nearly an everyday or every other day basis (OK, to put less pressure on him, whenever polls warrant).
Munching all 37 together into one average number, here is what they look like munched …
Obama: 269.8
McCain: 227.9
Toss Up: 40.3
We keep this database updated several times per week, so feel free to check back often. In addition, check back later this week for possibly some major changes. Quinnipiac is set to release Battleground polls in Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania tomorrow. Rasmussen and Survey USA are expected to roll out more polls this week which will continue shifting these numbers. Today we saw Ohio (PPP), Minnesota, and North Carolina.
Interestingly enough, we saw shifts over the last 7 days in electoral projection sites with Obama grabbing larger chuncks of electoral votes. Several sites, such as ColdHeartedTruth and HedgeHog Report saw shifts from McCain lead to Obama lead.
We also welcome 2 new Projection Sites to the Database, the Cook Political Report and President Elect.
Social Traffic Stats
Top 5 referring pages:
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
The major shortcoming of the current system of electing the President is that presidential candidates have no reason to poll, visit, advertise, organize, campaign, or worry about the voter concerns in states where they are safely ahead or hopelessly behind. The reason for this is the winner-take-all rule which awards all of a state’s electoral votes to the candidate who gets the most votes in each separate state. Because of this rule, candidates concentrate their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. Two-thirds of the visits and money are focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money goes to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people are merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 18 legislative chambers (one house in Colorado, Arkansas, Maine, North Carolina, Rhode Island, and Washington, and two houses in Maryland, Illinois, Hawaii, California, and Vermont). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
June 18th, 2008 at 3:00 pm