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Specter in trouble in 2010?
Pennsylvania voters ousted one Republican US Senator in 2006, right wing nut job Rick Santorum. Despite his popularity, could Pennsylvania be so blue now that moderate/liberal Senator Arlen Specter be in trouble too? That’s the early word according to Quinnipiac poll.
The Quinnipiac poll was completed more as a gauge and feel for the tumultuous status of the Pennsylvania General Assembly. The General Assembly is marred in a bonusgate scandal, just two years after a uproar and up rising over a very unpopular pay raise vote, led to 55 new House members. Now, two years later, the State Legislature is bruised and battered by a stinging scandal of hefty bonuses given to state legislative staff for alleged campaign work. So far, 12 indictments, 2 to members and 10 to staff, have been handed down by Pennsylvania Attorney General Tom Corbett, a likely candidate for Governor in 2010. The investigation promises more heads to roll in Harrisburg, both Democratic and Republican.
But, our important point of this poll here at 3BD is the Senate matchup in 2010. First, it is not entirely clear that Specter will seek another term. Specter has battled Hodgkin’s Disease the few years and is now facing a re-occurrence. All indications though, from the Specter camp, are that he will seek another terms. Several big names have popped up as possible contenders for the Democrats. One is current Pennsylvania Governor Edward Rendell. I doubt he will be a candidate, I can’t picture Eddie in a legislative positions after spending his career in an executive positions (DA of Philly, Mayor of Philly, Gov of PA). Another possible candidate is Congress woman Allyson Schwartz from a suburban district of Philadelphia. There have been rumblings of possibly Chris Heinze, heir to the Heinze ketchup fortune and son in law to Senator John Kerry. But, the strongest rumors center around MSNBC’s Hardball anchor Chris Matthews. Matthews is a resident of Philadelphia and former staffer to former House Democratic Leader Richard Gephardt.
In a hypothetical matchup between Specter and Matthews, trouble is brewing for Specter.
Sen. Arlen Specter: 41%
Chris Matthews: 36%
First, Specter is below the coveted 50%. Second, Specter is way below the 50%. Third, this race between the two, is within 6% points. Finally, Pennsylvania is no doubt trending bluer and bluer each year. Ask Rick Santorum. Ask George W. Bush, who was elected twice, wait, appointed once and elected once, but never won Pennsylvania. Ask former Congressmen Curt Weldon, Melissa Hart, John Peterson, and Mike Fitzpatrick, all swept out of office in the 2006 congressional elections.
We’ll keep an eye as this develops and be sure to post 2010 PA Senate and Governor tidbits here at 3BD!
